EuroGroup: money, debt and policy expectations
A retrospective discussion of how analysts separate desired policy outcomes from forecasts, framed around euro-area negotiations, debt and monetary conditions.
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Topic archive
Inflation
Historical analysis of changing prices, deflation and monetary-policy debates across Europe and Japan. Each entry retains its original period and should be read as archive material rather than current reporting.
Archive entries
Ten retrospective articles examining inflation, deflation, growth and central-bank policy during 2014 and 2015.
Spain and the debate over “good” deflation
An examination of the argument that falling prices could raise real incomes while employment and domestic activity recovered, alongside the risks that interpretation overlooked.
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Was Japan returning to recession?
This archive entry considered whether weaker activity could outweigh currency depreciation, rising equity prices and the policy support then associated with Japan’s economic programme.
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Euro area: a retrospective guide to QE
A question-and-answer overview of concerns surrounding quantitative easing when euro-area inflation was weak, including effectiveness, asset prices and institutional constraints.
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Abenomics: why doubts were growing
A review of the changing 2014 debate over Japan’s policy programme and whether its monetary, fiscal and structural elements were producing durable results.
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Italy’s prolonged contraction in context
This piece looked beyond the terminology of a “triple-dip” recession to consider Italy’s longer-running output weakness and its implications for the wider euro area.
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Abenomics and the limits of policy optimism
An examination of market expectations that weak economic news would prompt further central-bank support, and the risks of treating policy intervention as an automatic remedy.
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Interpreting Japan’s 2014 inflation increase
A closer look at headline inflation in Japan and the importance of separating tax effects, underlying price pressure and broader economic conditions.
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Could Japan return to deflation?
This forward-looking archive article assessed claims that deflation had ended and considered how temporary price effects could change the picture during 2015.
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Spain: deflation and headline GDP
An assessment of Spain’s first-quarter output estimate and the way falling prices could affect headline real-growth measures without resolving underlying economic weakness.
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How to read inflation analysis
Price data become more useful when the measure, period and economic setting are made explicit.
Check the measure
Headline, core, producer and wage measures answer different questions and need not move together.
Find the base period
Annual changes can look unusual when compared with an exceptionally high or low earlier period.
Separate one-off effects
Taxes, energy prices and supply disruptions may affect the index without becoming persistent inflation.
Add policy context
Consider growth, employment, credit conditions and expectations before interpreting a policy response.
Inflation archive FAQ
Are these articles current inflation forecasts?
No. They are historical articles from 2014 and 2015. They show how inflation and policy questions were framed at the time, not forecasts for 2026.
What is the difference between inflation and deflation?
Inflation is a sustained rise in the general price level; deflation is a sustained decline. Changes in one product or a brief monthly movement do not necessarily establish either trend.
Why can headline and underlying inflation differ?
Headline measures include all covered items, while underlying measures often reduce the influence of volatile categories. Each can be informative for a different purpose.
Why do tax changes matter when reading inflation data?
Indirect-tax changes can lift or lower measured consumer prices even when the underlying pattern of demand and production costs has changed less.
Which regions feature in this archive?
The entries focus mainly on the euro area, Spain, Italy and Japan, with attention to monetary policy and economic growth.
Does Economic Monitor provide financial advice?
No. The material is provided for general editorial and educational purposes and is not personalised investment, tax or legal advice.