The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy
Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is ... Read more
The economics of radical religious terrorism
The Charlie Hebdo attack has led many to claim that – or at least question why – Islam is associated with terrorism. I would reverse the order of causality the question implies. We must first try to answer why there are so many terrorist organizations linked to radical Islam. The attack led me to read, ... Read more
The Grand Bu-da-peşkeş Hotel
I had very high expectations from “The Grand Budapest Hotel”, the latest Wes Anderson movie which was nominated for nine Oscars on Jan. 15, four days after winning the best musical or comedy at the Golden Globes on Jan. 11. Not only because I am big Anderson fan, but also because the movie is inspired ... Read more
Turkey’s (Erdogan’s) Ak Palace and the new Reich Chancellery
Hello Again after another absence from blogging. I return thanks to my beloved Hurriyet Daily News (HDN), as I explain below. But I will try to stick to blogging regularly this time around. Below is what was supposed to my HDN column for today. However, when you buy the paper today or when you go ... Read more
A tale of two Turkeys
You probably often see very conflicting views of the Turkish economy. If you are sick of my gloomy writings (hey, it is called the dismal science), there are plenty of columns and research reports painting a rosy view of the Turkish economy. So how can we reconcile these different assessments? Well, the easiest way out ... Read more
Turkey’s monetary policy soap opera
Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on with his criticism, other cabinet members got involved as well, and on both sides. Actually, there is only one side ... Read more
Industrial Production: Another Turkish data puzzle
At 6.9 percent yoy, December industrial production (IP) came in much higher than expectations of 4.9 percent. Part of this is base effect; in fact, working day and seasonally-adjusted industrial production was unchanged over the previous month. However, machinery and equipment, which Turkey economists use as a leading indicator of investment, surged (red is yoy, ... Read more
How Central Bank of Turkey saved P.M. Erdoğan’s derrière
I couldn’t help but notice several misconceptions about Tuesday’s midnight’s emergency rate hike. Here is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. One of those misconceptions gave the column its title. To quote directly from the column: “Some have also argued that the rate hike hurt the ruling Justice of Development Party’s ... Read more
Would you invest a dime in Turkey?
I have been getting a lot of calls from investors, those with a longer-term focus as well as the usual short-term hedgies, who are obviously concerned about the political and economic developments in Turkey. I used to urge them to be cautious, while also emphasizing the potential gains they could have if Turkey emerges from ... Read more
General themes on the week’s Turkish economic data
We had a lot of data releases in Turkey this week. Rather than delve into the nitty gritties of the statistics, I would like to point out some general themes that emerged. Here is the intro. my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I go over a few general themes that emerged from this ... Read more
